Can AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers in 2026?

Moderate exposure. AI could handle about 54% of today's first-line supervisors of production and operating workers tasks by 2036, and there is a 39% chance the number of jobs falls by a fifth or more. AI both assists and takes over tasks.

See how not to be replaced

Timeline

Year2030

Tasks AI can do

29%

Headcount (2025 = 100)

Chance of 20%+ fewer jobs

16% 2030 · 39% 2036

One person could cover, 2036

1.6 roles

Share of today's tasks AI can perform

Headcount index, 2025 = 100 (dashed line)

Your survival map

Not every part of your job is at the same risk. Tap a number to see what to do about each task.

Your human coreDo it with AIHand to AI

Tap a number on the map or a task below.

Lower-risk jobs that use similar skills

First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators25% risk by 2036 First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers24% risk by 2036 First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants22% risk by 2036

Your plan

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Try an AI tool on one task you'd normally do by hand: "Keep records of employees' attendance and hours worked".Learn one AI tool well enough to show it in an interview, for: "Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production…".Get visibly better at your human core: "Enforce safety and sanitation regulations".Rewrite the top of your CV around judgment, people and decisions, not routine output.Read about a lower-risk move: First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators.

Lower-risk jobs with similar tasks

First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators — 25% chance of contraction by 2036
First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers — 24% chance of contraction by 2036
First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants — 22% chance of contraction by 2036

Similar occupations

First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers · Industrial Production Managers · First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers · First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand

Based on 20 O*NET tasks for "First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers" (SOC 51-1011.00). LLM alone: 15% of tasks; with AI tools: 65%. Projections are a model, not official statistics. How we calculate this · Data version 2026-10