Can AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators in 2026?

Lower exposure. AI could handle about 49% of today's first-line supervisors of material-moving machine and vehicle operators tasks by 2036, and there is a 25% chance the number of jobs falls by a fifth or more. AI both assists and takes over tasks.

See how not to be replaced

Timeline

Year2030

Tasks AI can do

27%

Headcount (2025 = 100)

Chance of 20%+ fewer jobs

12% 2030 · 25% 2036

One person could cover, 2036

1.5 roles

Share of today's tasks AI can perform

Headcount index, 2025 = 100 (dashed line)

Your survival map

Not every part of your job is at the same risk. Tap a number to see what to do about each task.

Your human coreDo it with AIHand to AI

Tap a number on the map or a task below.

Lower-risk jobs that use similar skills

First-Line Supervisors of Entertainment and Recreation Workers, Except Gambling Services14% risk by 2036 First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers14% risk by 2036 Helpers--Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers6% risk by 2036

Your plan

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Try an AI tool on one task you'd normally do by hand: "Maintain or verify records of time, materials, expenditures, or crew activities".Learn one AI tool well enough to show it in an interview, for: "Review orders, production schedules, blueprints, or shipping or receiving notices to determine work sequences and material shipping dates, types, volumes, or…".Get visibly better at your human core: "Enforce safety rules and regulations".Rewrite the top of your CV around judgment, people and decisions, not routine output.Read about a lower-risk move: First-Line Supervisors of Entertainment and Recreation Workers, Except Gambling Services.

Lower-risk jobs with similar tasks

First-Line Supervisors of Entertainment and Recreation Workers, Except Gambling Services — 14% chance of contraction by 2036
First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers — 14% chance of contraction by 2036
Helpers--Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers — 6% chance of contraction by 2036

Similar occupations

First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants · First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers · First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers · First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers

Based on 22 O*NET tasks for "First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators" (SOC 53-1043.00). LLM alone: 15% of tasks; with AI tools: 59%. Projections are a model, not official statistics. How we calculate this · Data version 2026-10