All occupations › Healthcare practitionersCan AI Replace Pediatric Surgeons in 2026? Lower exposure. AI could handle about 51% of today's pediatric surgeons tasks by 2036, and there is a 9% chance the number of jobs falls by a fifth or more. AI both assists and takes over tasks.
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Timeline Year 2030 Headcount (2025 = 100)
100
Chance of 20%+ fewer jobs
7% 2030 · 9% 2036
One person could cover, 2036
1.4 roles
0% 50% 100% 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2026: 14% 2027: 16% 2028: 18% 2029: 22% 2030: 27% 2031: 32% 2032: 38% 2033: 43% 2034: 46% 2035: 49% 2036: 51% 27% Share of today's tasks AI can perform 40 80 120 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2026: 101 2027: 101 2028: 101 2029: 101 2030: 100 2031: 100 2032: 99 2033: 98 2034: 98 2035: 98 2036: 99 100 Headcount index, 2025 = 100 (dashed line) Your survival map Not every part of your job is at the same risk. Tap a number to see what to do about each task.
You 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Tap a number on the map or a task below.
1 Examine fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents, and diagnose health issues to determine need for intervention, such as surgery. 2 Examine instruments, equipment, and operating room to ensure sterility. 3 Examine patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk. 4 Refer patient to medical specialist or other practitioners when necessary. 5 Analyze patient's medical history, medication allergies, physical condition, and examination results to verify operation's necessity and to determine best procedure. 6 Conduct research to develop and test surgical techniques that can improve operating procedures and outcomes. 7 Prepare case histories. 8 Describe preoperative and postoperative treatments and procedures, such as sedatives, diets, antibiotics, or preparation and treatment of the patient's operative area,… Based on 18 O*NET tasks for "Pediatric Surgeons" (SOC 29-1243.00). LLM alone: 11% of tasks; with AI tools: 61%. Projections are a model, not official statistics. How we calculate this · Data version 2026-10
