Replacemeter

Can AI Replace Highway Maintenance Workers in 2026?

Lower exposure. AI could handle about 3% of today's highway maintenance workers tasks by 2036, and there is a 5% chance the number of jobs falls by a fifth or more. AI mostly assists people in this role.

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Timeline

2030
Tasks AI can do
1%
Headcount (2025 = 100)
101
Chance of 20%+ fewer jobs
6% 2030 · 5% 2036
One person could cover, 2036
~1 roles
0%50%100%2026202820302032203420362026: 1%2027: 1%2028: 1%2029: 1%2030: 1%2031: 2%2032: 2%2033: 2%2034: 2%2035: 3%2036: 3%1%
Share of today's tasks AI can perform
40801202026202820302032203420362026: 1002027: 1012028: 1012029: 1012030: 1012031: 1022032: 1022033: 1022034: 1022035: 1032036: 103101
Headcount index, 2025 = 100 (dashed line)

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Based on 19 O*NET tasks for "Highway Maintenance Workers" (SOC 47-4051.00). LLM alone: 0% of tasks; with AI tools: 3%. Projections are a model, not official statistics. How we calculate this · Data version 2026-10