All occupations › Transportation & material movingCan AI Replace Bus Drivers, School in 2026? Lower exposure. AI could handle about 32% of today's bus drivers, school tasks by 2036, and there is a 12% chance the number of jobs falls by a fifth or more. AI mostly assists people in this role.
See how not to be replaced
Timeline Year 2030 Chance of 20%+ fewer jobs
9% 2030 · 12% 2036
One person could cover, 2036
1.2 roles
0% 50% 100% 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2026: 16% 2027: 17% 2028: 18% 2029: 20% 2030: 22% 2031: 24% 2032: 27% 2033: 29% 2034: 30% 2035: 31% 2036: 32% 22% Share of today's tasks AI can perform 40 80 120 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2026: 100 2027: 100 2028: 99 2029: 99 2030: 99 2031: 98 2032: 97 2033: 97 2034: 97 2035: 96 2036: 96 99 Headcount index, 2025 = 100 (dashed line) Your survival map Not every part of your job is at the same risk. Tap a number to see what to do about each task.
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Tap a number on the map or a task below.
1 Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order. 2 Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner. 3 Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities. 4 Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions. 5 Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption. 6 Record bus routes. 7 Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios. 8 Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures. Your plan Ticks are saved in this browser only.
Try an AI tool on one task you'd normally do by hand: "Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption". Learn one AI tool well enough to show it in an interview, for: "Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions". Get visibly better at your human core: "Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order". Rewrite the top of your CV around judgment, people and decisions, not routine output. Based on 17 O*NET tasks for "Bus Drivers, School" (SOC 53-3051.00). LLM alone: 29% of tasks; with AI tools: 35%. Projections are a model, not official statistics. How we calculate this · Data version 2026-10
